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Cartoonist's intepretation of Georgian-Russian conflict

Here’s my take on things as they stand at the moment:

This is messy and I believe it’s just another step in march towards confrontation between Russia and the West that has been developing over the past few years but largely unnoticed due to Western, particularly, American pre-occupation with Islamic terrorism, Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran. All the while, Russia has been pushing and pushing ever further seeing how much more it can get away with.

There is no innocent party in this latest conflict. The more I look into it, the more I believe Georgia provoked Russia into some kind of response with its offensive into South Ossetia. Though, Georgia have won the PR war thanks largely not only to its Western support but to its media-savvy, passionate and articulate President Saakashvili, whose impassioned pleas to the world for help over unprovoked Russian aggression, fooled many including me. Russia were too slow to play the media game and lost the moral advantage in the opening of the conflict, which Georgia somewhat dubiously has now.

Yes, the Russian were strong, quick, decisive, clinical, cynical and brutal. It was aimed at showing not just Georgia and the near-abroad but also the West – DO NOT FUCK WITH RUSSIA. Saakashvili gambled that he’d have the West’s unwaivering support but bit off more than he could chew with Russia going on the full-offensive and he was left with his pants around his ankles as the West watched from the sidelines.

But, at the same time Saakashvili does make valid points. The West has been asleep and/or otherwise preoccupied whilst Russia under Czar Vlad – who still is in charge – slowly did more and more to see what he could get away with. Look at what happen to Yushchenko in the lead up to Ukraine’s – a sovereign nation – democratic elections. Look at what happened to Litvinenko – in London, of all places. Look at Chechenya, look at the widespread violence against minority groups in Russia at the hands of ultra-nationalist thugs, the police either ignore the problems or are complicit with the violence. Ask dissidents such as Kasparov how free Russia is today.

Victor Yushchenko before and after dioxin poisoning

Alexander Litvinenko in hospital shortly before his death

The West, especially US, also have been far from angels in all this. They have actively tried to cozy up to former Soviet republics and move them towards Western democracy, which in hindsight was bound to piss Russia off.

Mikheil Saakashvili is understandably not so happy with the West's limp-wristed support so far

The Russians said yesterday that Poland having a missile defence system with ‘not go unpunished’.

Russia and the West are on a collision course and this is just the beginning. The West has its hands in too many jars at the moment and Russia knows this and will use this situation to its advantage and see how much more it can take until this is the inevitable point-of-no-return. Only time will tell how far away that it.

Never forget 'Mad' Vlad still calls the shots in Russia