This post strikes up my 150th and I thought it appropriate to attach a song to this momentous post. To all the 9,880 page hitters who’ve reached this site, I sincerely thank you for taking some time out of your day, entering a phrase on Google and ending up at my blog, may many more share your wonderful, random experience!
Today’s Song of the Day to celebrate this occasion is a live performance of “Better Man” by British singer-songwriter, Robbie Williams. It’s a somewhat, reflective, wistful piece on the trials and tribulations which befall a man on his quest to being a better and more complete human being. Seeing as I’m – somewhat inexplicably – currently in a minor melancholic rut as I’m prone from time to time, I found this piece fairly apt as a man on his journey for redemption (particularly self-redemption) for past failings and inadequacies, and for the glue that binds us together and helps us propel ourselves onto newer and greater heights things, not before realised, understood or fully anticipated – love, peace and understanding.
Predicting the future is …. well, pointless really as we really do have little or no idea at all just how the future will play out. But, not necessarily, according to George Friedman who believes that “the trick is getting people to see what is in front of their eyes, not what they expect to see.”
Friedman, a former US military analyst now political scientist and author, was in Sydney last week where he was interviewed by the Sydney Morning Herald whilst attending the Sydney Writers’ Festival.
In the fascinating article – which is well worth a look at, Friedman goes on to predict among other things that the US will continue to be the dominant military and economic force for the next 100 years with there being a re-commencement of the Cold War between the US and Russia, a seemingly unlikely – at the moment at least – armed conflict between the US and Japan, and a full-scale confrontation between the US and Mexico. Whilst all this occurs, Poland and Turkey will emerge as powers and wars will be waged from space-based platforms.
Friedman goes on to say that “wild-eyed dreamers” are better predictors of the future than “commonsensical people”.
Seeing as I’m a self-proclaimed ‘wild-eyed dreamer’, I thought I’d put this to the test and provide my perspectives of some of the developments I see occurring in this century:
Four major spheres of global influence. The traditionally strong Europe and North America, and the rapidly developing East/South East Asia, and India and the Middle East. These spheres will increasingly compete against each other of global resources and capital, including increasingly labour resources. Wars and localised conflicts will occur from this increasing competition for global resources.
Increasing divide, cultural mistrust and tension between the secular West (as well as India and increasingly so East/South East Asia) and the fundamentalist Islamic world will continue to accelerate and threaten peace not just in the Middle East but also in South East Asia and Europe until a significant war occurs some time around 2020. After which, the more conservative nations of the Islamic world will forced to accept more secular philosophies imposed upon them by the West/Asia or face financial ruin as sufficient alternative sources of energy have been found for the West/Asia to ignore trade with the region if desired. The following decades will result in a renaissance of Islamic/Arabic culture and ideas as most nations move towards democracy with small pockets of fundamentalism remaining.
China, India and Russia will become the 2nd, 3rd and 4th most powerful nations on Earth behind the US. Brazil, Mexico and Colombia will be Latin American powers; Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia will be the significant powers in South East Asia; Turkey, Iran and Poland will be other significant emerging powers. The Democratic Republic of Congo will become the most powerful state in Africa. Japan, South Korea and nation-states of Western Europe will remain significant powers yet with a declining influence compared with now.
Countries that can successfully blend their increasingly diverse, multicultural populations without said populations becoming segregated and ‘ghetto-ised‘ will be the best equipped for the future as the world will be ‘smaller’ and more globalised than ever. The US, Canada, UK, France, Germany and Australia are just some countries dealing with these issues now. Should these countries successfully ‘blend’ their increasingly multicultural societies into the one national unit, they will succeed. China, Japan, Russia and South Korea MUST become more open, tolerant and accepting if they are truly to succeed in this increasingly globalised, inter-connected world.
Malaysia will benefit greatly this century due to its strategic location, expanding population and economy, and multicultural population – especially with its local ethnic Chinese and Indian populations who will be useful bridges connecting to the huge, expanding Indian and Chinese markets. This country has the benefit of being of one of the few countries in the world today that truly has close links to all four major spheres of global influence : Europe, North America, East/South East Asia and the Middle East; and as such have a huge advantage should they be able to successfully manage their development and overcome lingering issues in regards to ethnicity and discrimination against non-Malays.
Australia will be truly Eurasian with ever stronger links to East and South East Asia, and weaker yet still significant links to traditional partners ,the US and Europe. Australia will still retain a ‘western’ outlook but will become an increasingly multicultural, multi-lingual, multi-faith society – well positioned to take on the next 100 years providing narrow-mindedness and insularity doesn’t overwhelm the current population.
A lot of the current issues regarding lack of and declining natural resources, human-caused ecological damage and global warming will be overcome by innovation, ingenuity and an overall re-focus towards newer, cleaner, more intelligent technologies. However, the world will only start to recover by 2030. Before then, it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
There will be significant exploration, discovery and settlement of other celestial bodies. By 2100, approximately 2.5% of the world’s population will live outside Earth, some in places ordinary citizens have as of yet not heard of.
I will retire sometime in my late 50′s, lead a comfortable retirement either somewhere in Malaysia/Indonesia or Australia, and pass away in my 70s. I never wanted to live too long to outstay my welcome anyway!
Humans will have contact and develop relations with ‘other-beings’. We are not alone. Don’t be scared.
Sounds good. I’ll come back to this post in 50 years – even though I predict I’ll be dead by then – to see how much of my ramble above is correct!
Following yesterday’s nuclear test and firing of three short-range missiles, they have followed through by firing a short-range surface-to-air and short-range surface-to-ship missile from their eastern coast today, according to Yonhap News Agency.
Meanwhile, South Korea is still mourning the loss of Roh Moo-hyun, which is understandable. Less understandably, they’re anxiously finding any foreigners who may have possibly been in the vicinity of someone who was in the same district as someone who might have shared the same space as an individual who may possibly have contracted the H1N1 virus – or possibly just a common cold. But, it’s best to round ‘em up and keep tabs on ‘em anyway, healthy or not, they’re obviously a threat to the local population.
There’s a very interesting and informative blog which has just surfaced in the last few days as the author has been stationed in quarantine along with three dozen other English teachers who may have come in contact with the H1N1 virus via way of Japan. The South Korean Government has been very thorough in finding and quarantining any foreign nationals who may have come in contact with individuals who have contracted the disease. The Ministry of Education has ordered every education office to provide lists of any foreign instructors who entered the country after May 11 and to inform them by 5pm today on any individuals displaying flu-like symptoms. The local media has been quick to latch onto this with much resultant paranoia surrounding disease-laden foreign English teachers.
Sure, I’m glad the Korean Government is being proactive in targeting this disease and ensuring that it doesn’t spread throughout the country. But, correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m fairly certain H1N1 doesn’t discriminate upon racial, cultural, ethnic groups so why exactly is the Korean Government taking such a proactive stance towards foreign nationals who may or may not have been exposed to the disease since the post-May11th period whereas the 50 to 100 times more Korean nationals who have entered the country during the same time period are being treated far more leniently? Far be it from me to say the dirty X word again … xenophobia.
Check out the blog at English Teacher in Quarantine in South Korea, and ZenKimchi at Hub of Sparkle’s encounter with H1N1 xenophobic wacky. Brian’s blog also contains more information on the sudden largely xenophobic hysteria sweeping Korea over H1N1.
North Korea has raised the ante again having conducted their second nuclear missile test this morning, measuring 4.7 on the Richter scale, followed by their launch of a short-range missile just hours later.
North Korea’s provocative actions come just days after the passing of former South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, and as the United States is set to observe Memorial Day.
Financial markets in the region have already felt the jitters. Meanwhile, South Korean troops are on heightened alert.
The Foreign Minsters of Norway and France have expressed their concern. Meanwhile, US President Obama has labelled the test“a matter of grave concern to all nations”, warranting action from the international community; with Japan mentioning they would seek decisive action from the UN after this latest nuclear test and missile launch.
No doubt, there’s a lot more to come from this developing story.
Update: South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency is reporting from a diplomatic source that Beijing was informed of this current nuclear test prior to its detonation.
Meanwhile, British PM Gordon Brown has condemned North Korea’s nuclear test in “the strongest terms”, while the South Korean Government have issued their own condemnation of the test.
Posted by elcanguro76 
