Predicting the future is …. well, pointless really as we really do have little or no idea at all just how the future will play out. But, not necessarily, according to George Friedman who believes that “the trick is getting people to see what is in front of their eyes, not what they expect to see.”
Friedman, a former US military analyst now political scientist and author, was in Sydney last week where he was interviewed by the Sydney Morning Herald whilst attending the Sydney Writers’ Festival.
In the fascinating article – which is well worth a look at, Friedman goes on to predict among other things that the US will continue to be the dominant military and economic force for the next 100 years with there being a re-commencement of the Cold War between the US and Russia, a seemingly unlikely – at the moment at least – armed conflict between the US and Japan, and a full-scale confrontation between the US and Mexico. Whilst all this occurs, Poland and Turkey will emerge as powers and wars will be waged from space-based platforms.
Friedman goes on to say that “wild-eyed dreamers” are better predictors of the future than “commonsensical people”.
Seeing as I’m a self-proclaimed ‘wild-eyed dreamer’, I thought I’d put this to the test and provide my perspectives of some of the developments I see occurring in this century:
- Four major spheres of global influence. The traditionally strong Europe and North America, and the rapidly developing East/South East Asia, and India and the Middle East. These spheres will increasingly compete against each other of global resources and capital, including increasingly labour resources. Wars and localised conflicts will occur from this increasing competition for global resources.
- Increasing divide, cultural mistrust and tension between the secular West (as well as India and increasingly so East/South East Asia) and the fundamentalist Islamic world will continue to accelerate and threaten peace not just in the Middle East but also in South East Asia and Europe until a significant war occurs some time around 2020. After which, the more conservative nations of the Islamic world will forced to accept more secular philosophies imposed upon them by the West/Asia or face financial ruin as sufficient alternative sources of energy have been found for the West/Asia to ignore trade with the region if desired. The following decades will result in a renaissance of Islamic/Arabic culture and ideas as most nations move towards democracy with small pockets of fundamentalism remaining.
- China, India and Russia will become the 2nd, 3rd and 4th most powerful nations on Earth behind the US. Brazil, Mexico and Colombia will be Latin American powers; Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia will be the significant powers in South East Asia; Turkey, Iran and Poland will be other significant emerging powers. The Democratic Republic of Congo will become the most powerful state in Africa. Japan, South Korea and nation-states of Western Europe will remain significant powers yet with a declining influence compared with now.
- Countries that can successfully blend their increasingly diverse, multicultural populations without said populations becoming segregated and ‘ghetto-ised‘ will be the best equipped for the future as the world will be ’smaller’ and more globalised than ever. The US, Canada, UK, France, Germany and Australia are just some countries dealing with these issues now. Should these countries successfully ‘blend’ their increasingly multicultural societies into the one national unit, they will succeed. China, Japan, Russia and South Korea MUST become more open, tolerant and accepting if they are truly to succeed in this increasingly globalised, inter-connected world.
- Malaysia will benefit greatly this century due to its strategic location, expanding population and economy, and multicultural population – especially with its local ethnic Chinese and Indian populations who will be useful bridges connecting to the huge, expanding Indian and Chinese markets. This country has the benefit of being of one of the few countries in the world today that truly has close links to all four major spheres of global influence : Europe, North America, East/South East Asia and the Middle East; and as such have a huge advantage should they be able to successfully manage their development and overcome lingering issues in regards to ethnicity and discrimination against non-Malays.
- Australia will be truly Eurasian with ever stronger links to East and South East Asia, and weaker yet still significant links to traditional partners ,the US and Europe. Australia will still retain a ‘western’ outlook but will become an increasingly multicultural, multi-lingual, multi-faith society – well positioned to take on the next 100 years providing narrow-mindedness and insularity doesn’t overwhelm the current population.
- A lot of the current issues regarding lack of and declining natural resources, human-caused ecological damage and global warming will be overcome by innovation, ingenuity and an overall re-focus towards newer, cleaner, more intelligent technologies. However, the world will only start to recover by 2030. Before then, it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
- There will be significant exploration, discovery and settlement of other celestial bodies. By 2100, approximately 2.5% of the world’s population will live outside Earth, some in places ordinary citizens have as of yet not heard of.
- I will retire sometime in my late 50’s, lead a comfortable retirement either somewhere in Malaysia/Indonesia or Australia, and pass away in my 70s. I never wanted to live too long to outstay my welcome anyway!
- Humans will have contact and develop relations with ‘other-beings’. We are not alone. Don’t be scared.
Sounds good. I’ll come back to this post in 50 years – even though I predict I’ll be dead by then – to see how much of my ramble above is correct!
