World Cup 2010 South Africa – my tips, wild guesses & unsubstantiated analysis

May 25, 2010

Well, it’s that time of every fourth year and the next installment of the FIFA World Cup is just around the corner. Forget the Olympics, this is the biggest single sporting event on the planet - and surrounding galaxies. The World Cup Final is also the most watched event in the world with a ridiculous number of individuals from all walks of life, nations, religions, creeds and football affiliations across the globe tuning in closely to see just who will be the World Cup Champion. Legends are created, reputations tainted and fans are made as 32 squads of 23 men battle out to see what nation will win the ultimate football prize and bragging rights for the next four years. Or, next forty-four and counting in the case of England!

Seeing as I’m an obsessive football fan every four years from a month out from the World Cup until a day after the final, I thought I really should divulge my opinions, guesses and unsubstantiated analysis out onto the Internets for people who have even less idea than me about soccer. Given that I’m also between employment at this stage, I thought it would be a productive, useful waste of a day to pour over the team lists, check out the schedules and groupings in order to determine just who will win the Cup. I’ve covered all 64 matches – finals and all – predicted not only winners, losers and drawers but, also surmised the scores of every individual game on the table. Not only that but I’ve also put my money where my mouth and laid some cash on my predictions online. Thank you TAB Sportsbet.

The Combatants

The winner

For those who don’t like soccer or football or whatever you call it, here it is now, the winner of the World Cup so that you don’t have endure the hours of endless matches, analysis and random rantings and grunts from otherwise sane individuals every other time outside FIFA World Cup™ tournament month. The winner of FIFA World Cup 2010 South Africa is Spain. Spain have the cattle, the ability, the form, the confidence and the je ne sais quoi to finally exorcise their underachieving demons in the big dance to hold aloft the Jules Rimet trophy come Sunday, June 11th 2010.

The runner-up & semi-finalists

Ok, now that we’ve got the winners out of the way. Let’s look at who will be the runner-up. According to my careful analysis and random guessing, I have concluded that the runner-up with be the Netherlands, who will lose to Spain 3-1 in the Final. The Netherlands may somewhat of a surprise pick but having gone through the draw and finals I came to the prediction that the Netherlands will face and ultimately beat France in the first semi-final to progress to the final match. In the other semi-final, the eventual champions – Spain will meet and beat the much-fancied Argentina 3-2 in an entertaining, fast-paced, star-filled match. Argentina will go on avenge their semi-final defeat to Spain by demolishing France 4-1 in the third place playoff.

The quarter-finalists & round of 16 entrants

Now, to the quarter-finalists. England, having beaten Serbia 5-3 on penalties - yes penalties! after a 2-all draw in the round of 16, will succumb to the immense pressure of their fans and the darstardly French losing 2-1. They will be left to rue yet again just what went gone and unfortunately for Fabio Capello, the Italian will be made the scapegoat – as there’s always gotta be a scapegoat – and swiftly sent back to Milan.

Germany, having disposed of the impressive Americans 2-1 in the round of 16 - a flashback to World Cup ’02 - will go down to the Argies 3-1 in their quarter-final.

Brazil, lacking the flair, the panache and the two Ronnies (Ronaldo & Ronaldinho) of previous World Cups will be a shadow of their usual selves and go down in the quarter-finals to the eventual runner-up, the Netherlands 3-2 in extra time after a 2-2 draw. Brazil’s last victory in the 2010 World Cup will be their 4-2 win over fellow South Americans, Chile in the round of 16 match.

The reigning World Cup champions and prima donnas of the highest order, Italy will not reach the dizzy heights of the final this time round falling at the quarter-final stage to the eventual champions, and much more likeable, Spain. The Italians will go down 3-1 to the Spaniards and yes, there will be tears – both from the victorious Iberians and from the distraught lads of Italia. Cameroon will see their World Cup campaign end in the round of 16 as a result of a clinical, defensive Italian 1-0 victory.

Nigeria will get through to the round of 16 as runner-up to the Netherlands in their group but will fall to France 2-1. Mexico, having finished second to France in their group, will be thoroughly outplayed by Argentina 4-1 in their round of 16 clash. Paraguay, the second placed team in Group F, will be kicked out by eventual runners-up, the Netherlands 2-1. And, the Portuguese will fall to the Spaniards 3-2 in the all-Iberian round of 16 match having finished second in Group G.

Having got the champion, runner-up, quarter-finalists and round of 16 entrants out of the way. Let’s now have a look at the confederations – which confederation will have good results, which will be disappointing, which realistically shouldn’t have been there in the first place.

Africa (CAF)

First, let’s look at Africa as this is the first World Cup to be played on African soil and with a record six entrants from the continent, it’s only fair to start there. I think in this World Cup we have four very highly capable, skillful teams in Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast), Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria; as well as two decent teams in Algeria and hosts, South Africa. Any or all of the Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria – equipped with their star-studded lineups of European club match-harden players – are capable of knocking off the more established football nations and rightfully claiming their place in the final two weeks of the tournament. As luck would have it, or not have it, all four of the more-fancied African nations – barring Nigeria – are placed in tougher groups in the early stage of the competition and will find it tough to get through to the round of 16. As such, despite their immense ability and highly-skilled players, I don’t think Ivory Coast and Ghana will be able to get past their respective groups with Brazil and Portugal standing in the way for the Ivory Coast, and Germany, Serbia, and even Australia, standing in the way of Ghana and a round of 16 appearance.  Nigeria and Cameroon, credited with slightly easier groups should make it through to the round of 16 but, unfortunately I think that will be where their campaigns end as they come up against France and Italy respectively. Meanwhile, Algeria will be outmatched by their Group C opponents – England, the US and Slovenia – and will finish winless on the bottom of their group. And, perhaps the saddest news of the whole World Cup will be the failure of South Africa to score points against France, Uruguay and Mexico to be the first host nation not to make it past the group stage.

Asia (AFC)

Seeing as I’ve spent the past seven years in Asia and seeing as Australia is now according to FIFA an Asian nation – Or, perhaps, just an Oceanian nation with an identity crisis! - it’s apt that I look at the Asian combatants next. World Cup 2010 will not be a good World Cup for Asia. In fact, it will be a dismal World Cup for the Asian entrants and will question whether Asia truly deserves the 4.5 spots it receives for each World Cup - politics and economics however dictate that if anything Asia will be more likely of receiving more rather than less WC spots in the future. I predict that confronted by superior opponents with more skilled and battle-harden squads, none of the Asian nations will win a match in this World Cup and as such all of North Korea, South Korea, Japan and Australia will finish bottom of their respective groups. North Korea will not relive their 1966 heroics and will be lucky to score a goal against the Ivory Coast, Brazil and Portugal, and escape the gulag once they return to Pyongyang. Japan will be no match for the likes of the Netherlands, Cameroon and Denmark. South Korea, whilst along with Australia being the best prospect of Asian advancement in their final stages, will falter against Argentina and Nigeria, yet manage to regain some pride with a draw against Greece. Australia, a nation that has aged but not advanced in the four years since their heroic defeat to Italy in the round of 16 in Germany, will have little strength to withhold the might of Germany, Serbia and Ghana in Group D. My head says that Australia will be lucky to gain a point, hell a goal even!, against their opponents. However, I have gone with my heart and predicted that Australia will gallantly lose to the Germans 2-0 and go on to draw with the Serbians and Ghanians. Regardless, they will not progress to the next stage and questions have to be raised as to the immediate future of Australian football as there seems to be a lack of young talent ready to step in once this golden generation retires in the upcoming years.

Oceania (OFC)

Can you believe it? For two World Cups in a row there will be an Oceanic entrant. First in 2006, was now Asian, Australia carrying the flag for humble, little Oceania, and now in 2010 thanks to New Zealand knocking off fifth placed Asian competitor, Bahrain, we have another Oceania representative. New Zealand‘s fairytale run to make the World Cup is one of the happier stories of this World Cup and I’m sure that along with South Africa, New Zealand will be many people’s second team going into the finals. As evidenced by last night’s clash against Australia they will be competitive and will surprise with their tenacity and spirit. However, they really are outmatched by their opponents and truth be told Slovakia, Paraguay and Slovakia shouldn’t have too many problems against the All Whites, though I’d love to be proven wrong!

South America (CONMEBOL)

As mentioned before I believe Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Paraguay will advance to the second stage of the tournament with Argentina, semi-finalists and third place winners, being the best performed nation in the confederation. That leaves Uruguay, the only one of the five CONMEBOL contestants not to make the second round. Uruguay, as Australians all know, are undoubtedly a strong, competitive, skilled football nation. But, I believe that it will be Mexico, not Uruguay, going through Group A and into the second stage of the finals.

North and Central America (CONCACAF)

Three nations will represent the regions of North and Central America in this World Cup and the good news is that two of them – the US and Mexico will advance to the second round. The US are an improving outfit who are better than many believe will have a good World Cup, being runners-up to England in Group C, but do not yet have the answers to get past Germany in the round of 16. Mexico, a proud, competitive team will always play their best but will ultimately fall to the might of Argentina in their round of 16 match. Meanwhile, Honduras will be fairly competitive but will not have the talent, skill or battle-hardness to get past their Group H opponents – Spain, Chile and Switzerland.

Europe (UEFA)

Last, but definitely not least, is the largest confederation represented in South Africa with 13 members in the Cup – Europe. Europe will ultimately have a good World Cup as a whole with Spain picking up their first trophy meanwhile the Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy, England, Serbia and Portugal will all put in worthy performances and reach the second stage. Which leaves us with the European competitors who do not reach the second stage of the Cup: Greece, Denmark, Slovakia, Slovenia and Switzerland. None of these teams will have a truly poor World Cup in my opinion, just not good enough to get through their groups to the round of 16. Greece, stacked against Argentina, Nigeria and South Korea will be the tight, tenacious unit they always are but will end up finishing third in their group with two draws. Slovenia will knock off Algeria and be competitive yet unable to beat the US and England. Denmark, placed against the might of the Netherlands and Cameroon will finish third in their group ahead of Japan. Slovakia will also finish third, taking account of New Zealand, failing against Italy and just missing out on the second stage to Paraguay on goal difference. And, Switzerland will manage draws against Honduras and Chile but fail against the champions, Spain, and finish number three in their group too.

The Star

The World Cup is the ultimate stage and is the event where legends can be set in folklore, or conversely egos are brusied and damaged beyond repair. Who will ever forget the exploits of the Pelés, the Maradonas, the Zidanes, the Ronaldos, even the Schillacis  and the Roger Millas. Who will be the one who will shine brightest in this World Cup? No one truly knows, not yet at least, but it’s the greatest opportunity available for a player to leave a permanent mark on the game of football. The individual who I believe will really shine in this World Cup is Argentina’s Lionel Messi. Messi will confirm his status as the world’s premier football player but will be unable to achieve in this World Cup what his coach, Diego Maradona, has achieved – a World Cup triumph. Not this World Cup at least.

The Golden Boot

Playing against minnows in the early group stages: Argentina, Portugal, the Netherlands, Brazil and Spain will all have ample opportunity to put the ball in the back of the net. However, whilst some of these teams will prove to find goals easily initially, not all will have as much success when the going gets tougher in the second stage of the finals. As such, I’ve narrowed down the golden boot recipient to be either a Spaniard or an Argentine - ie. Messi. After careful analysis I predict the Golden Boot for the 2010 FIFA World Cup will be Spain’s Fernando Torres, who along with David Villa provide a particularly potent striking combination upfront.

The Predicted Group Results & Standings

Now, the games results and predicted scores. A lot of these predictions were undertaken with little more thought than a guess, an inkling, a whim. As such, most of these scores and many results too are most likely not to occur - so don’t bet your house on them! But, I’ve put my money and ahem, reputation, on the line in making these predictions so I will stand by them despite the fact that there’s no way this many goals are going to be scored in the tournament unless the goalkeepers are on strike! Anyways, here are my tips. I look forward to seeing just how wrong I am!

Group A

South Africa 1 – 2 Mexico

Uruguay 1 – 1 France

South Africa 1 – 2 Uruguay

France 2 – 1 Mexico

France 3 – 1 South Africa

Mexico 2 – 1 Uruguay

Group A
Team W D L GF GA Pts
FRANCE 2 1 0 6 3 7
MEXICO 2 0 1 5 4 6
Uruguay 1 1 1 4 4 4
South Africa 0 0 3 3 7 0

Group B

South Korea 1 – 1 Greece

Argentina 3 – 1 Nigeria

Greece 1 – 1 Nigeria

Argentina 3 – 1 South Korea

Greece 1 – 3 Argentina

Nigeria 3 – 1 South Korea

Group B
Team W D L GF GA Pts
ARGENTINA 3 0 0 9 3 9
NIGERIA 1 1 1 5 5 4
Greece 0 2 1 3 5 2
South Korea 0 1 2 3 7 1

Group C

Algeria 1 – 2 Slovenia

England 1 – 1 USA

Slovenia 1 – 2 USA

England 2 – 0 Algeria

Slovenia 1 – 4 England

USA 2 – 1 Algeria

Group C
Team W D L GF GA Pts
ENGLAND 2 1 0 7 2 7
USA 2 1 0 5 3 7
Slovenia 1 0 2 4 7 3
Algeria 0 0 3 2 6 0

Group D

Serbia 1 – 1 Ghana

Germany 2 – 0 Australia

Germany 2 – 1 Serbia

Ghana 2 – 2 Australia

Australia 1 – 1 Serbia

Ghana 1 – 3 Germany

Group D
Team W D L GF GA Pts
GERMANY 3 0 0 7 2 9
SERBIA 0 2 1 3 4 2
Ghana 0 2 1 4 6 2
Australia 0 2 1 3 5 2

Group E

Netherlands 3 – 2 Denmark

Japan 1 – 3 Cameroon

Netherlands 3 – 0 Japan

Cameroon 3 – 3 Denmark

Cameroon 2 – 3 Netherlands

Denmark 2 – 1 Japan

Group E
Team W D L GF GA Pts
NETHERLANDS 3 0 0 9 4 9
CAMEROON 1 1 1 8 7 4
Denmark 1 1 1 7 7 4
Japan 0 0 3 2 8 0

Group F

Italy 1 – 0 Paraguay

New Zealand 1 – 4 Slovakia

Slovakia 2 – 2 Paraguay

Italy 5 – 0 New Zealand

Paraguay 4 – 1 New Zealand

Slovakia 1 – 3 Italy

Group F
Team W D L GF GA Pts
ITALY 3 0 0 9 1 9
PARAGUAY 1 1 1 6 4 4
Slovakia 1 1 1 7 6 4
New Zealand 0 0 3 2 13 0

Group G

Brazil 4 – 0 North Korea

Ivory Coast 2 – 2 Portugal

Brazil 3 – 2 Ivory Coast

Portugal 6 – 0 North Korea

North Korea 1 – 4 Ivory Coast

Portugal 2 – 4 Brazil

Group G
Team W D L GF GA Pts
BRAZIL 3 0 0 11 4 9
PORTUGAL 1 1 1 10 6 4
Ivory Coast 1 1 1 8 6 4
North Korea 0 0 3 1 14 0

Group H

Honduras 1 – 2 Chile

Spain 3 – 1 Switzerland

Chile 1 – 1 Switzerland

Spain 5 – 1 Honduras

Chile 1 – 4 Spain

Switzerland 2 – 2 Honduras

Group H
Team W D L GF GA Pts
SPAIN 3 0 0 12 3 9
CHILE 1 1 1 4 6 4
Switzerland 0 2 1 4 6 2
Honduras 0 1 2 4 9 1

The Predicted Finals Results

Group of 16

Match 49

(A1) FRANCE 2

(B2) NIGERIA 1

Match 50

(C1) ENGLAND 2

(D2) SERBIA 2

England win pen.5-3

Match 53

(E1)NETHERLANDS 2

(F2) PARAGUAY 1

Match 54

(G1) BRAZIL 4

(H2) CHILE 2

Match 52

(B1)ARGENTINA 4

(A2) MEXICO 1

Match 51

(D1) GERMANY 2

(C2) USA 1

Match 55

(F1) ITALY 1

(E2)CAMEROON 0

Match 56

(H1) SPAIN 3

(G2)PORTUGAL 2

Quarter-finals

Match 58

(49) FRANCE 2

(50) ENGLAND 1

Match 59

(52)ARGENTINA 3

(51) ) GERMANY 1

Match 57

(53)NETHERLANDS 2

(54) BRAZIL 2

Netherlands win aet.3-2

Match 60

(55) ITALY 1

(56) SPAIN 3

Semi-finals

Match 61

(58) FRANCE 1

(57) NETHERLANDS 2

Match 62

(59) ARGENTINA 2

(60) SPAIN 3

Third Place Playoff

(L61) FRANCE 1

(L62) ARGENTINA 4

World Cup Final

(W61) NETHERLANDS 1

(W62) SPAIN 3

Spain are the 2010 World Cup Champions!


Hello

May 7, 2010

Hello everyone,

Sorry I’ve been a tardy and not posted on this blog for quite a while. In the time between this post and my last post I have returned to Australia after seven long years in Korea and seeing as I was no longer in Jeonnam thought it’d be a bit odd to post on Jeonnam Life.

I have set up a new blog, which is in its infancy and will be added to substantially in the upcoming weeks, on my and my girlfriend’s adventures in Australia – at this point we plan on staying in Australia for the rest of this year and see what happens after that. I plan on keeping this blog and adding more edgy, thought-provoking posts every now and then – the other blog is going to be a lighter, travelogue-style blog. I may change the name of this blog from ‘Jeonnam Life’ however, as that title’s no longer very relevant.

Anyways, hope you’re all well. Take care and be sure to check out ‘Ben and Hyun-jeong’s {Excellent} Australian Adventures‘!

Cheers