History repeats and Russia once again proves to be a petulant bully as it continues to keep the gas pipelines closed between Russia and Ukraine, freezing tens of millions of Europeans in the process. Russia blames Ukraine for not paying the bills, Ukraine says it’s paid its bills. Nine days on and the issue is far from resolved. Meanwhile, countries as far afield as Germany and Italy are being affected by this. More acutely affected countries are in Eastern Europe, where countries such as Romania and Bulgaria, rely on Russian natural gas for the vast majority of their energy and heating. With sub-zero temperatures enveloping Europe, scores are no doubt going to die from this and Russia must be held accountable.
Meanwhile, Israeli continues to lose any credibility they’re desperately trying to cling onto by striking the main UN compound in Gaza city on their ongoing surge into Gaza amongst continued calls from the UN and foreign governments for Israel and Hamas to cease hostilities.
Vladimir Putin held an interview yesterday with CNN reporter Matthew Chance and made some stunning accusations that are still reverberating across the West. Some of the more provocative comments include:
“(The Americans were) doing as they were ordered, and the only one who can give such orders is their leader”
“If my guess is right, then it raises the suspicion that someone in the US specially created this conflict to worsen the situation and create an advantage in the competitive struggle for one of the candidates for the post of president of the United States,”
“They needed a short, victorious war,”
“And if it didn’t work out, they could always put the blame on us, make us look like the enemy and against the background of this surge of patriotism, once more rally the country around a particular political force,”
Strong words indeed and they have certainly caused a ruckus across the West, even with many distracted by the US Democratic party convention. But, the big question is – Is there any truth to these accusations?
This time Vlad's not pulling any punches
The US unsurprisingly labeled the accusations “patently false”, while French – current EU presidency holders – Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, said the EU will consider sanctions against Russia.
US troops were indeed in Georgia training Georgian soldiers when the conflict between Russia and Georgia escalated – that much is undeniably true. This is the only source I have found, whose credibility appears somehow questionable, which mentions not only dead American but also dead Israeli soldiers in the conflict zone. Below is an excerpt from the website:
The 3 dead American soldiers, these reports state, were identified by their uniform patches as belonging to the United States 173 Airborne Brigade assigned to the US’ Southern European Command, and who just a few weeks ago were airlifted to Georgia for what was described as a ‘war game’ exercise with Georgian Military Forces preparing for their unprovoked attack upon the Russian peoples of South Ossetia.
The 4 dead Israeli soldiers, these reports continue, are believed to part of the Israeli governments sponsored mercenary forces who have previously wreaked havoc in the US protected South American puppet state of Colombia, and to which Israel is now its largest weapons supplier.
I have been unable to find any mention of these dead soldiers from any credible Western media source, so you’re guess is as good as mine as to whether there’s any truth to this matter. Frankly, it wouldn’t incredibly surprise me given the past acts of the Bush administration if there were some US troops involved. I’m not convinced that the Bush administration manipulated this whole conflict to get their man John McCain in the oval office. At the same time, Putin is a wily fox who knows how to play the media and get what he wants – though perhaps this time he possibly has bitten off more than he can chew whether he is telling porky pies or not. Without clear evidence – ie. indisputable photographic evidence of dead US and Israeli soldiers in the conflict zone, he’s pissing in the wind and the West will not believe nor trust him.
The US is also currently providing humanitarian aid to Georgia which the Russians are increasingly restless about along with an increase of NATO ships in the Black Sea. This conflict and its aftermath is far from over and there could well be significant and long-standing reprecussions from this for many players – big (US, Russia, Europe) and small (Georgia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia).
The following video is a BBC World news report on the current events considering Russia in the aftermath of the Georgian conflict.
Cartoonist's intepretation of Georgian-Russian conflict
Here’s my take on things as they stand at the moment:
This is messy and I believe it’s just another step in march towards confrontation between Russia and the West that has been developing over the past few years but largely unnoticed due to Western, particularly, American pre-occupation with Islamic terrorism, Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran. All the while, Russia has been pushing and pushing ever further seeing how much more it can get away with.
There is no innocent party in this latest conflict. The more I look into it, the more I believe Georgia provoked Russia into some kind of response with its offensive into South Ossetia. Though, Georgia have won the PR war thanks largely not only to its Western support but to its media-savvy, passionate and articulate President Saakashvili, whose impassioned pleas to the world for help over unprovoked Russian aggression, fooled many including me. Russia were too slow to play the media game and lost the moral advantage in the opening of the conflict, which Georgia somewhat dubiously has now.
Yes, the Russian were strong, quick, decisive, clinical, cynical and brutal. It was aimed at showing not just Georgia and the near-abroad but also the West – DO NOT FUCK WITH RUSSIA. Saakashvili gambled that he’d have the West’s unwaivering support but bit off more than he could chew with Russia going on the full-offensive and he was left with his pants around his ankles as the West watched from the sidelines.
But, at the same time Saakashvili does make valid points. The West has been asleep and/or otherwise preoccupied whilst Russia under Czar Vlad – who still is in charge – slowly did more and more to see what he could get away with. Look at what happen to Yushchenko in the lead up to Ukraine’s – a sovereign nation – democratic elections. Look at what happened to Litvinenko – in London, of all places. Look at Chechenya, look at the widespread violence against minority groups in Russia at the hands of ultra-nationalist thugs, the police either ignore the problems or are complicit with the violence. Ask dissidents such as Kasparov how free Russia is today.
Victor Yushchenko before and after dioxin poisoning
Alexander Litvinenko in hospital shortly before his death
The West, especially US, also have been far from angels in all this. They have actively tried to cozy up to former Soviet republics and move them towards Western democracy, which in hindsight was bound to piss Russia off.
Mikheil Saakashvili is understandably not so happy with the West's limp-wristed support so far
The Russians said yesterday that Poland having a missile defence system with ‘not go unpunished’.
Russia and the West are on a collision course and this is just the beginning. The West has its hands in too many jars at the moment and Russia knows this and will use this situation to its advantage and see how much more it can take until this is the inevitable point-of-no-return. Only time will tell how far away that it.
Never forget 'Mad' Vlad still calls the shots in Russia